SSE.LT

On Friday, Lithuanian statistics department updated figures on domestic industrial production and transport enterprises activity – the numbers that are less adjustable by interested parties, unlike GDP or sentiment indicators. So, industrial production declined 16% in July compared to the last year, slightly better than last month’s figure, driven by the same size decline in manufacturing. Total goods transportation load reduced by 17%, passengers – by 21% . The numbers compare to the worst 33% and 22% respective falls this year. Despite lower deterioration rate can be interpreted as a “green shoot”, declines are still double digit,  while improvements are caused by one-time events or statistical characteristics.

So better July’’s number in manufacturing category, the major contributor to total economy industrial production, resulted from higher than 100% y/y growth of crude oil and natural gas extraction (in Lithuania?), 103% growth in medicine production (absolutely “the best” measure of GDP growth), and a 4-month 45% average increase in production of electronic and optical products.  All rates are hardly sustainable. On more realistic side, production of food fell 11% , clothing – 27%, metals – 44.6%.

Industrial production

Transportation load is more complicated to observe, as the same good or passenger can travel by several types of transport to reach its destination. Both categories include train, marine, which carries 44% of goods, local water and air transport. Deterioration rate of international Klaipeda port’s load improved the most in July, which contributed to general picture. However, volatility of amount of goods handled in the port is extremely large compared to other categories. In July, its activity was only 2% lower compared to 2008, in June the figure was -22%. Historical monthly standard deviation is around 19%. I won’t be surprised to see a >20% drop again in August.

Transportation load