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Latvia and Estonia economies improve (???)

Economies improve

Two of the three Baltic nations saw their economies decline at a slower pace in the second quarter, increasing tentative hopes that the worst may be over in the crisis-hit region… The improving quarter-on-quarter trend bolstered the argument of those who believe the Baltic economies have bottomed out after suffering the deepest recessions in the European Union this year.

Black is white. Baltic States are not so big to moderate their GDP or unemployment figures significantly, unlike the US. Their only tool is to present real numbers in mystery interpretations.  Just note what is the current macro environment in the countries:

GDP contraction is the all time severest in all three Baltic countries (Bloomberg ironically doesn’t show 2q GDP of Lithuania, which contracted 22.4%):

gdp

Baltic states GDP (Lithuania should be -22%)

Number of unemployed people have never been so high in Latvia and Estonia. In Lithuania 193,900 people don’t have work and the number is rising:

Unemployment

Unemployment

Retail sales dropped so deep they won’t recover soon:

Retail sales

Retail sales

Remember, Baltic States preferred deflationary path over devaluation. That means we still have to experience 30-40% deflation to get to equilibrium.  However, Latvia and Lithuania still have inflation! And only Estonian prices started to fall compared to the same period last year by bulky 0.7-0.9%. Good start.

Inflation

Inflation

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Source: ft.com

Category: Baltics, Macro

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